Cikgu Oh Cikgu

Posted by Kris | Monday, June 22, 2009 | , | 0 comments »

Gurus or Cikgu In Bahasa Melayu is abundant in the stock market. Everyone is making their calls and "PROPHETIC" analysts. Recently, a few ironically female friends (usually girls are more conservative in their investment, risk averse) have been asking me on what stocks to buy, particularly US stocks.

I accidentally touched on the subject of options. They say it is too risky for them. I mentioned that stock investment is risky too. But she mentioned that it is not risky if you know what stock to buy. Do you get the ironic feeling here?!!

Hmm....from my perspective, i believe that alot of people NOW are planning on jumping into the stock market because they believe that the economy is recovering due to the healthy rally. Employment in the US is not dropping yet but still on the rise.

He Called the 2007 Top and Recent Rally, Now Charles Nenner Sees Trouble Ahead for Stocks

Posted Jun 22, 2009 09:51am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers,Recession

Charles Nenner of the Charles Nenner Research Center uses some unorthodox methods to predict the markets. In a nutshell, he ignores what most people think of as fundamental news and uses a variety of cycle indicators to forecast market movements, often to a specific date.

Nenner’s view is that market cycles repeat, and the key is finding points in time when long- and short-term cycles sync up to give a major buy or sell signal.

Sounds crazy, right?

Well, there must be some method to the madness because the former market-timing consultant at Goldman Sachs has made some stellar calls, including:

  • Forecasting a Dow peak of 14,500 in the summer of 2006.
  • Calling the market top in October 2007.
  • Forecasting in late 2007 a “deflation scare” would occur in 2008, something he says isn’t over yet.
  • In February 2009, predicted a major rally would start “in a few weeks” and could take the S&P as high as 1000.

So what is Nenner saying now?

After some short-term gains to coincide with month-end window dressing, Nenner predicts the stock market will turn south, possibly sharply.
“I’m still worried we could test the lows,” he says, suggesting a break of S&P 850 would make that grim outcome a near certainty.
Check the accompanying video for more on Nenner’s analysis, including some insights on how he uses the past to predict the future.

Anime Pic:Gantz (18 PL)